“Contingent power extension” and regional (dis)integration: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its consequences for the EU

In this article, we explore the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a case of “Contingent
Power Extension” (CPE) towards the European Union (EU), assessing its
implications for regional (dis)integration in the latter. CPE is a conceptual prism
that interprets the BRI as a polymorphous, dynamic, and context-specific mechanism
through which Chinese foreign policy elites intend to convey, amplify, and
legitimize the regime’s power-reach into other regions, including the EU. Along two
examples—the 14 + 1 Cooperation Forum and the Port of Genoa in Italy—we examine
the power dynamics of the BRI by tracing (a) the processual impact of power
extension towards the EU and (b) the (un)intended consequences for the EU in terms
of (dis)integration. The findings of our analysis provide an insight into the multicausal
relations between the BRI and European (dis)integration not as a static outcome
but rather as a contested process of struggle. The article concludes by discussing
whether and how the EU can strengthen its own institutional foundations and use
its systemic leverage to respond to the BRI while enhancing regional integration in
the process.